Sunspot cycle 23 descent to an unusual minimum and forecasts for cycle 24 activity

The decay phase of the sunspot cycle 23 exhibited two unusual features. First, it lasted too long. Second, the interplanetary magnetic field intensity at earth orbit reached the lowest value since in situ measurements in space began in October 1963. These physical anomalies significantly altered the early forecasts for the sunspot activity parameters for cycle 24, made by several colleagues. We note that there was a significant change in the solar behavior during cycle 22. We discuss the observed trends and their effect on our empirical solar activity forecast technique, leading to our prediction for cycle 24 parameters; cycle 24 will be only half as active as cycle 23, reaching its peak in May 2013. We speculate on the possible implications of this outcome on future earth climate change and the ensuing socio-economic consequences.     

Potential Effects of Surface Temperature Variations and Disturbances and Thermal Convection on the Mars InSight HP<Superscript>3</Superscript> Heat-Flow Determination

The HP³ instrument on the InSight lander mission will measure subsurface temperatures and thermal conductivities from which heat flow in the upper few meters of the regolith at the landing site will be calculated. The parameter to be determined is steady-state conductive heat flow, but temperatures may have transient perturbations resulting from surface temperature changes and there could be a component of thermal convection associated with heat transport by vertical flow of atmospheric gases over the depth interval of measurement. The experiment is designed so that it should penetrate to a depth below which surface temperature perturbations are smaller than the required measurement precision by the time the measurements are made. However, if the measurements are delayed after landing, and/or the probe does not penetrate to the desired depth, corrections may be necessary for the transient perturbations. Thermal convection is calculated to be negligible, but these calculations are based on unknown physical properties of the Mars regolith. The effects of thermal convection should be apparent at shallow depths where transient thermal perturbations would be observed to deviate from conductive theory. These calculations were required during proposal review and their probability of predicting a successful measurement a prerequisite for mission approval. However, their uncertainties lies in unmeasured physical parameters of the Mars regolith.     

The Relativistic Proton Spectrometer (RPS) for the Radiation Belt Storm Probes Mission

The Relativistic Proton Spectrometer (RPS) on the Radiation Belt Storm Probes spacecraft is a particle spectrometer designed to measure the flux, angular distribution, and energy spectrum of protons from ～60 MeV to ～2000 MeV. RPS will investigate decades-old questions about the inner Van Allen belt proton environment: a nearby region of space that is relatively unexplored because of the hazards of spacecraft operation there and the difficulties in obtaining accurate proton measurements in an intense penetrating background. RPS is designed to provide the accuracy needed to answer questions about the sources and losses of the inner belt protons and to obtain the measurements required for the next-generation models of trapped protons in the magnetosphere. In addition to detailed information for individual protons, RPS features count rates at a 1-second timescale, internal radiation dosimetry, and information about electrostatic discharge events on the RBSP spacecraft that together will provide new information about space environmental hazards in the Earth’s magnetosphere.     

Investigation of phase transition-based tethered systems for small body sample capture

This paper summarizes the modeling, simulation, and testing work related to the development of technology to investigate the potential that shape memory actuation has to provide mechanically simple and affordable solutions for delivering assets to a surface and for sample capture and possible return to Earth. We investigate the structural dynamics and controllability aspects of an adaptive beam carrying an end-effector which, by changing material equilibrium phases, is able to actively decouple the end-effector dynamics from the spacecraft dynamics during the surface contact phase. Asset delivery and sample capture and return are at the heart of several emerging potential missions to small bodies, such as asteroids and comets, and to the surface of large bodies, such as Titan.     

Concept of monitoring for thermostressed state and service life of aircraft gas turbine engine blades

A concept of monitoring for material properties with residual life estimation of rotor blades for gas turbine engines is proposed. The structure of on-board control and conditionmonitoring system based on the intelligent pyrometer module with the algorithm for calculating the residual life of turbine rotor blades is described.     

Analysis of a beam with a crack under irregular cyclic load

This paper considers a beam with a technological longitudinal section on the level of the gravity center of the cross section that is loaded by a vertical concentrated force. We study the structure durability depending on the load amplitude and the initial crack length.     

Improvement of gas-dynamic efficiency of GTE gas turbine stages at the design stage

Methods to control flow have been considered in order to reduce end losses in blade rows of GTE gas turbines by means of measures taken at the design stage.